Modena vs Cesena prediction: Modena to win 1-0 as model gives 69.5% chance
Serie B sees Modena face Cesena at Alberto Braglia. The model makes Modena the favourite, assigning a clear 69.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Modena 69.5%, draw 19.2%, Cesena 11.3%.
Modena have generated 1.40 goals per game (1.06x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.14 conceded per game. Cesena average 1.08 scored (0.82x average) and are a steady defence at 1.44 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.7 for Modena and 0.8 for Cesena.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (48%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Modena to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 69.5% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.