Empoli vs Vicenza prediction: Empoli to win 2-1 as model gives 38.3% chance
Serie B sees Empoli face Vicenza at Stadio Carlo Castellani - Computer Gross Arena. The model makes Empoli the favourite, assigning a narrow 38.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Empoli 38.3%, draw 28.9%, Vicenza 32.9%.
Empoli have generated 1.12 goals per game (0.85x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.52 conceded per game. Vicenza average 1.25 scored (0.95x average) and are a leaky defence at 2.15 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2 for Empoli and 1.3 for Vicenza.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 65%), and both teams are likely to score (64.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Empoli to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 38.3% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.