Arezzo vs Benevento prediction: Benevento to win 0-2 as model gives 49.9% chance
Serie B sees Arezzo face Benevento at Stadio Città di Arezzo. The model makes Benevento the favourite, assigning a slight 49.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Arezzo 23.1%, draw 27.1%, Benevento 49.9%.
Arezzo have generated 1.12 goals per game (0.85x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.92 conceded per game. Benevento average 1.48 scored (1.13x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.98 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.9 for Arezzo and 1.9 for Benevento.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (53.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-2, with 1-1, 0-2, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Benevento to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 49.9% confidence. A 0-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.