Lillestrom vs Viktoria Plzen prediction: Viktoria Plzen to win 0-1 as model gives 47.1% chance
Europa League sees Lillestrom face Viktoria Plzen at Arasen Stadion. The model makes Viktoria Plzen the favourite, assigning a slight 47.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Lillestrom 25.9%, draw 26.9%, Viktoria Plzen 47.1%.
Lillestrom have generated 0.64 goals per game (0.43x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 3.11 conceded per game. Viktoria Plzen average 0.85 scored (0.57x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.75 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.8 for Lillestrom and 1.6 for Viktoria Plzen.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 56.4%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (46.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-1, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Viktoria Plzen to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 47.1% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.