AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus prediction: Juventus tipped to edge it (56.9%)
Europa League sees AZ Alkmaar face Juventus at AFAS Stadion. The model makes Juventus the favourite, assigning a slight 56.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is AZ Alkmaar 13.3%, draw 29.8%, Juventus 56.9%.
AZ Alkmaar have generated 2.14 goals per game (1.44x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.68 conceded per game. Juventus average 2.87 scored (1.92x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.07 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.7 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.2 for Juventus.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 55.6%), and both teams are likely to score (58.3%).
Verdict: Juventus to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 56.9% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.