Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille prediction: Bayer Leverkusen to win 3-0 as model gives 82.4% chance
Europa League sees Bayer Leverkusen face Marseille at BayArena. The model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite, assigning a strong 82.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Bayer Leverkusen 82.4%, draw 13.6%, Marseille 4%.
Bayer Leverkusen have generated 2.70 goals per game (1.81x the league average) and are yet to concede. Marseille average 0.29 scored (0.30x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.87 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 3.2 for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.2 for Marseille.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 65.8%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 17.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 3-0, with 3-0, 2-0, 4-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Bayer Leverkusen to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 82.4% confidence. A 3-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.