Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok prediction: Levski Sofia to win 1-0 as model gives 49% chance
Europa League sees Levski Sofia face Jagiellonia Bialystok at Vasil Levski National Stadium. The model makes Levski Sofia the favourite, assigning a slight 49% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Levski Sofia 49%, draw 26.7%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 24.3%.
Levski Sofia have generated 1.07 goals per game (0.72x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.00 conceded per game. Jagiellonia Bialystok average 1.33 scored (0.89x average) and are a leaky defence at 2.02 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.6 for Levski Sofia and 0.8 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 56.2%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (45.7%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-0, 1-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Levski Sofia to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 49% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.