Real Sociedad vs Lyon prediction: Real Sociedad to win 3-0 as model gives 51.6% chance
Europa League sees Real Sociedad face Lyon at Reale Arena. The model makes Real Sociedad the favourite, assigning a slight 51.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Real Sociedad 51.6%, draw 27%, Lyon 21.4%.
Real Sociedad have generated 2.79 goals per game (1.87x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.96 conceded per game. Lyon average 1.70 scored (1.14x average) and are a steady defence at 1.71 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 3.2 for Real Sociedad and 1 for Lyon.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 78.6%), and both teams are likely to score (60.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 3-0, with 3-0, 3-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Real Sociedad to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 51.6% confidence. A 3-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.