Viktoria Plzen vs Levski Sofia result: 1-2 as Viktoria Plzen were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Viktoria Plzen 1-2 Levski Sofia. We tipped Viktoria Plzen at 60.3% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Europa League sees Viktoria Plzen face Levski Sofia at Doosan Arena. The model makes Viktoria Plzen the favourite, assigning a clear 60.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Viktoria Plzen 60.3%, draw 21.2%, Levski Sofia 18.5%.
Viktoria Plzen have generated 0.80 goals per game (0.57x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.67 conceded per game. Levski Sofia average 0.55 scored (0.38x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.00 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.6 for Viktoria Plzen and 0.6 for Levski Sofia.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 87.7%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 22%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Viktoria Plzen to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 60.3% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.