Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad result: 0-6 as Real Sociedad were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Lillestrom 0-6 Real Sociedad. We tipped Real Sociedad at 73.1% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Europa League sees Lillestrom face Real Sociedad at Arasen Stadion. The model makes Real Sociedad the favourite, assigning a clear 73.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Lillestrom 4.1%, draw 22.8%, Real Sociedad 73.1%.
Lillestrom have generated 1.00 goals per game (0.71x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.45 conceded per game. Real Sociedad average 1.08 scored (0.76x average) and are a steady defence at 1.46 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.2 for Lillestrom and 1 for Real Sociedad.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 63.6%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 44.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Real Sociedad to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 73.1% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.