NK Celje vs RB Salzburg result: 2-2 as RB Salzburg were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: NK Celje 2-2 RB Salzburg. We tipped RB Salzburg at 64.5% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Europa League sees NK Celje face RB Salzburg at Stadion Z'dezele. The model makes RB Salzburg the favourite, assigning a clear 64.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is NK Celje 10.1%, draw 25.4%, RB Salzburg 64.5%.
NK Celje have generated 0.00 goals per game (0.30x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.55 conceded per game. RB Salzburg average 0.80 scored (0.57x average) and are a leaky defence at 2.09 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.7 for NK Celje and 1.3 for RB Salzburg.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 67.6%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 38.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 0-1, 0-0, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: RB Salzburg to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 64.5% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.