Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Anderlecht result: 0-3 as Anderlecht were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Jagiellonia Bialystok 0-3 Anderlecht. We tipped Anderlecht at 50.6% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Europa League sees Jagiellonia Bialystok face Anderlecht at Stadion Miejski Bialystok. The model makes Anderlecht the favourite, assigning a slight 50.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Jagiellonia Bialystok 14.7%, draw 34.7%, Anderlecht 50.6%.
Jagiellonia Bialystok have generated 2.09 goals per game (1.48x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.45 conceded per game. Anderlecht average 0.50 scored (0.36x average) and are a steady defence at 1.50 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.5 for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 0.5 for Anderlecht.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 56.5%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 34.8%).
Verdict: Anderlecht to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 50.6% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.