TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon result: 3-0 as TSG Hoffenheim were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: TSG Hoffenheim 3-0 Lyon. We tipped TSG Hoffenheim at 71.7% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Europa League sees TSG Hoffenheim face Lyon at PreZero Arena. The model makes TSG Hoffenheim the favourite, assigning a clear 71.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is TSG Hoffenheim 71.7%, draw 14.1%, Lyon 14.2%.
TSG Hoffenheim have generated 1.11 goals per game (0.78x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.54 conceded per game. Lyon average 2.21 scored (1.56x average) and are a steady defence at 1.32 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.2 for TSG Hoffenheim and 3.2 for Lyon.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 80.8%), and both teams are likely to score (66.3%).
Verdict: TSG Hoffenheim to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 71.7% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.