Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica result: 1-4 as Omonia Nicosia were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Omonia Nicosia 1-4 Benfica. We tipped Omonia Nicosia at 38.5% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Europa League sees Omonia Nicosia face Benfica at GSP Stadium. The model makes Omonia Nicosia the favourite, assigning a narrow 38.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Omonia Nicosia 38.5%, draw 27%, Benfica 34.5%.
Omonia Nicosia have generated 2.09 goals per game (1.48x the league average) and are yet to concede. Benfica average 3.09 scored (2.18x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.55 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.9 for Omonia Nicosia and 0.8 for Benfica.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 74.6%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 35.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 0-0, 1-1, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Omonia Nicosia to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 38.5% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.