Union St.-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er result: 4-0 as Union St.-Gilloise were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Union St.-Gilloise 4-0 Hapoel Be'er. We tipped Union St.-Gilloise at 70% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Europa League sees Union St.-Gilloise face Hapoel Be'er at Merkur Spiel-Arena. The model makes Union St.-Gilloise the favourite, assigning a clear 70% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Union St.-Gilloise 70%, draw 19.4%, Hapoel Be'er 10.6%.
Union St.-Gilloise have generated 1.88 goals per game (1.33x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.58 conceded per game. Hapoel Be'er average 0.55 scored (0.39x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.09 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.6 for Union St.-Gilloise and 0.2 for Hapoel Be'er.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 72.4%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 15.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-0, 2-0, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Union St.-Gilloise to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 70% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.