Lech Poznan vs Sunderland result: 1-1 as Sunderland were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Lech Poznan 1-1 Sunderland. We tipped Sunderland at 62.8% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Europa League sees Lech Poznan face Sunderland at Municipal Stadium-Poznan. The model makes Sunderland the favourite, assigning a clear 62.8% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Lech Poznan 17.6%, draw 19.6%, Sunderland 62.8%.
Lech Poznan have generated 0.00 goals per game (0.30x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 4.00 conceded per game. Sunderland average 1.55 scored (1.09x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.55 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.2 for Lech Poznan and 3.2 for Sunderland.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 65.8%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 17.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-3, with 0-3, 0-2, 0-4 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Sunderland to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 62.8% confidence. A 0-3 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.