Juventus vs Stade Rennais result: 2-2 as Juventus were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Juventus 2-2 Stade Rennais. We tipped Juventus at 73% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Europa League sees Juventus face Stade Rennais at Allianz Stadium. The model makes Juventus the favourite, assigning a clear 73% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Juventus 73%, draw 17.3%, Stade Rennais 9.7%.
Juventus have generated 3.36 goals per game (2.37x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.55 conceded per game. Stade Rennais average 1.09 scored (0.77x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.55 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for Juventus and 0.4 for Stade Rennais.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 72.2%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 25.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-0, 0-0, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Juventus to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 73% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.