Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar result: 0-4 as AZ Alkmaar were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Ararat-Armenia 0-4 AZ Alkmaar. We tipped AZ Alkmaar at 74.9% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Europa League sees Ararat-Armenia face AZ Alkmaar at Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium. The model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite, assigning a clear 74.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Ararat-Armenia 4.9%, draw 20.2%, AZ Alkmaar 74.9%.
Ararat-Armenia have generated 1.00 goals per game (0.71x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 3.45 conceded per game. AZ Alkmaar average 1.15 scored (0.81x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.05 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.8 for Ararat-Armenia and 2.5 for AZ Alkmaar.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 65%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (52.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-2, with 0-2, 0-3, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: AZ Alkmaar to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 74.9% confidence. A 0-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.