Marseille vs Olympiacos prediction: Marseille tipped to edge it (55%)
Europa League sees Marseille face Olympiacos at Stade Vélodrome. The model makes Marseille the favourite, assigning a slight 55% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Marseille 55%, draw 19.4%, Olympiacos 25.6%.
Marseille have generated 1.00 goals per game (0.73x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 4.00 conceded per game. Olympiacos average 2.00 scored (1.46x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.00 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.8 for Marseille and 3.2 for Olympiacos.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 76.3%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (54%).
Verdict: Marseille to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 55% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.