Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen result: 2-4 as Dinamo Zagreb were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Dinamo Zagreb 2-4 NEC Nijmegen. We tipped Dinamo Zagreb at 62.8% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Europa League sees Dinamo Zagreb face NEC Nijmegen at Maksimir Stadium. The model makes Dinamo Zagreb the favourite, assigning a clear 62.8% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Dinamo Zagreb 62.8%, draw 22.9%, NEC Nijmegen 14.3%.
Dinamo Zagreb have generated 1.02 goals per game (0.72x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.03 conceded per game. NEC Nijmegen average 0.55 scored (0.38x average) and are a leaky defence at 2.82 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.3 for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.4 for NEC Nijmegen.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 27.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 2-0, 1-0, 3-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Dinamo Zagreb to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 62.8% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.