SK Sturm Graz vs Marseille result: 1-0 as Marseille were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: SK Sturm Graz 1-0 Marseille. We tipped Marseille at 49.8% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Europa League sees SK Sturm Graz face Marseille at Merkur Arena. The model makes Marseille the favourite, assigning a slight 49.8% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is SK Sturm Graz 20.8%, draw 29.4%, Marseille 49.8%.
SK Sturm Graz have generated 0.21 goals per game (0.30x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.54 conceded per game. Marseille average 0.45 scored (0.32x average) and are a leaky defence at 2.36 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.8 for SK Sturm Graz and 0.4 for Marseille.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 87.1%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 20.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Marseille to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 49.8% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.