Celta Vigo vs Juventus prediction: Juventus to win 0-2 as model gives 55.7% chance
Europa League sees Celta Vigo face Juventus at Balaidos. The model makes Juventus the favourite, assigning a slight 55.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Celta Vigo 21.7%, draw 22.6%, Juventus 55.7%.
Celta Vigo have generated 1.04 goals per game (0.76x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.32 conceded per game. Juventus average 5.00 scored (2.50x average) and are yet to concede. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.3 for Celta Vigo and 3 for Juventus.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 64.3%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 28.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-2, with 0-2, 0-3, 0-4 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Juventus to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 55.7% confidence. A 0-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.