Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia prediction: Jagiellonia Bialystok to win 2-1 as model gives 78.3% chance
Europa League sees Jagiellonia Bialystok face Ararat-Armenia at Stadion Miejski Bialystok. The model makes Jagiellonia Bialystok the favourite, assigning a strong 78.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Jagiellonia Bialystok 78.3%, draw 14.6%, Ararat-Armenia 7.1%.
Jagiellonia Bialystok have generated 1.00 goals per game (0.73x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.00 conceded per game. Ararat-Armenia average 1.00 scored (0.73x average) and are a leaky defence at 4.00 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.8 for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 1.3 for Ararat-Armenia.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 77.5%), and both teams are likely to score (69.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 2-1, 3-1, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Jagiellonia Bialystok to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 78.3% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.