Benfica vs Celtic prediction: Benfica to win 3-0 as model gives 82.4% chance
Europa League sees Benfica face Celtic at Estádio da Luz. The model makes Benfica the favourite, assigning a strong 82.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Benfica 82.4%, draw 13.3%, Celtic 4.3%.
Benfica have generated 2.00 goals per game (1.46x the league average) and are yet to concede. Celtic average 1.38 scored (1.01x average) and are a leaky defence at 2.33 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 3.2 for Benfica and 0.4 for Celtic.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 69.1%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 30.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 3-0, with 3-0, 2-0, 4-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Benfica to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 82.4% confidence. A 3-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.