TSG Hoffenheim vs Besiktas prediction: TSG Hoffenheim tipped to edge it (61.7%)
Europa League sees TSG Hoffenheim face Besiktas at PreZero Arena. The model makes TSG Hoffenheim the favourite, assigning a clear 61.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is TSG Hoffenheim 61.7%, draw 15.9%, Besiktas 22.4%.
TSG Hoffenheim have generated 0.00 goals per game (0.30x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.00 conceded per game. Besiktas average 4.00 scored (2.50x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.00 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.3 for TSG Hoffenheim and 3.2 for Besiktas.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 68.4%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 27.6%).
Verdict: TSG Hoffenheim to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 61.7% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.