Ferencvaros vs Viktoria Plzen prediction: Ferencvaros to win 2-0 as model gives 47.7% chance
Europa League sees Ferencvaros face Viktoria Plzen at Groupama Arena. The model makes Ferencvaros the favourite, assigning a slight 47.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Ferencvaros 47.7%, draw 28.2%, Viktoria Plzen 24.1%.
Ferencvaros have generated 1.80 goals per game (1.32x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.42 conceded per game. Viktoria Plzen average 0.72 scored (0.53x average) and are a steady defence at 1.53 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.3 for Ferencvaros and 0.7 for Viktoria Plzen.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 56.2%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 45%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 2-0, 1-0, 3-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Ferencvaros to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 47.7% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.