NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia prediction: NEC Nijmegen tipped to edge it (59.1%)
Europa League sees NEC Nijmegen face Levski Sofia at Goffertstadion. The model makes NEC Nijmegen the favourite, assigning a slight 59.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is NEC Nijmegen 59.1%, draw 19.9%, Levski Sofia 21%.
NEC Nijmegen have generated 0.00 goals per game (0.30x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 5.00 conceded per game. Levski Sofia average 0.00 scored (0.30x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.00 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.3 for NEC Nijmegen and 0.9 for Levski Sofia.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 86.7%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 18.2%).
Verdict: NEC Nijmegen to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 59.1% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.