AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er prediction: AZ Alkmaar to win 1-0 as model gives 85.6% chance
Europa League sees AZ Alkmaar face Hapoel Be'er at AFAS Stadion. The model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite, assigning a strong 85.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is AZ Alkmaar 85.6%, draw 9.3%, Hapoel Be'er 5.1%.
AZ Alkmaar have generated 0.00 goals per game (0.30x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.00 conceded per game. Hapoel Be'er average 0.00 scored (0.30x average) and are yet to concede. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.2 for AZ Alkmaar and 0.3 for Hapoel Be'er.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 98.8%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 4.7%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 0-0, 0-1, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: AZ Alkmaar to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 85.6% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.