Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction: Bayer Leverkusen to win 0-3 as model gives 79.4% chance
Europa League sees Lech Poznan face Bayer Leverkusen at Municipal Stadium-Poznan. The model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite, assigning a strong 79.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Lech Poznan 5%, draw 15.6%, Bayer Leverkusen 79.4%.
Lech Poznan have generated 0.00 goals per game (0.30x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 4.00 conceded per game. Bayer Leverkusen average 2.00 scored (1.46x average) and are yet to concede. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.2 for Lech Poznan and 3.2 for Bayer Leverkusen.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 65.8%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 17.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-3, with 0-3, 0-2, 0-4 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Bayer Leverkusen to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 79.4% confidence. A 0-3 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.