FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution prediction: New England Revolution to win 1-2 as model gives 39.8% chance
MLS sees FC Cincinnati face New England Revolution at TQL Stadium. The model makes New England Revolution the favourite, assigning a narrow 39.8% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is FC Cincinnati 33.6%, draw 26.6%, New England Revolution 39.8%.
FC Cincinnati have generated 1.91 goals per game (1.19x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.36 conceded per game. New England Revolution average 1.66 scored (1.03x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.40 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.9 for FC Cincinnati and 2.2 for New England Revolution.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 76.9%), and both teams are likely to score (75.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 2-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: New England Revolution to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 39.8% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- MLS Power Rankings: No Cavan? No problem for surging Philadelphia — Philadelphia lost three star youngsters to international duty, yet the Union continued their march toward the top of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-28)
- MLS Power Rankings: Union skyrocket as unbeaten streak reaches 11 games — Can anyone stop the Philadelphia Union? Their latest win powered them up the charts in this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-21)
- Source: Ex-U.S. defender Miazga set for NYCFC after Cincy exit — Former United States defender Matt Miazga is set to join New York City FC, a source confirmed to ESPN. (ESPN, 2026-09-18)
- MLS Power Rankings: Chicago's slide continues as Nashville cements top spot — The Chicago Fire haven't tasted victory in more than three weeks, precipitating a slide down this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-14)
- MLS Power Rankings: Griezmann catapults Orlando into the playoff picture — With eight goal contributions in eight games since joining the Lions, Antoine Griezmann has turned around Orlando's season. That and more in ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-07)
- MLS Power Rankings: Nashville continue top, Miami bounce back — Lionel Messi's four goals put Miami back on track, while Nashville continue to dominate. All that and more in this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-08-31)