D.C. United vs Red Bull New York prediction: D.C. United to win 1-0 as model gives 43.1% chance
MLS sees D.C. United face Red Bull New York at Audi Field. The model makes D.C. United the favourite, assigning a narrow 43.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is D.C. United 43.1%, draw 26.3%, Red Bull New York 30.6%.
D.C. United have generated 1.26 goals per game (0.78x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.68 conceded per game. Red Bull New York average 1.08 scored (0.67x average) and are a steady defence at 1.70 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for D.C. United and 1 for Red Bull New York.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (51%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: D.C. United to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 43.1% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
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- MLS Power Rankings: No Cavan? No problem for surging Philadelphia — Philadelphia lost three star youngsters to international duty, yet the Union continued their march toward the top of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-28)
- MLS Power Rankings: Union skyrocket as unbeaten streak reaches 11 games — Can anyone stop the Philadelphia Union? Their latest win powered them up the charts in this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-21)
- Red Bulls teen Hall undecided on USMNT future despite 1st call-up — New York Red Bulls teenage forward Julian Hall said the decision on his international allegiance was still "not solidified," despite earning a first call-up to the U.S. men's national team on Thursday. (ESPN, 2026-09-17)
- MLS Power Rankings: Chicago's slide continues as Nashville cements top spot — The Chicago Fire haven't tasted victory in more than three weeks, precipitating a slide down this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-14)
- MLS Power Rankings: Griezmann catapults Orlando into the playoff picture — With eight goal contributions in eight games since joining the Lions, Antoine Griezmann has turned around Orlando's season. That and more in ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-07)