Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte FC prediction: Philadelphia Union to win 2-1 as model gives 48.6% chance
MLS sees Philadelphia Union face Charlotte FC at Subaru Park. The model makes Philadelphia Union the favourite, assigning a slight 48.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Philadelphia Union 48.6%, draw 25.8%, Charlotte FC 25.5%.
Philadelphia Union have generated 2.34 goals per game (1.43x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.41 conceded per game. Charlotte FC average 1.80 scored (1.10x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.37 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.2 for Philadelphia Union and 1.4 for Charlotte FC.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 69.6%), and both teams are likely to score (67.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 3-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Philadelphia Union to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 48.6% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- MLS Power Rankings: Miami back to winning ways, as Nashville chase history — Inter Miami end their winless drought, while Nashville still lead the way in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-12)
- Philadelphia Union, USMNT's Cavan Sullivan becomes youngest MLS Player of the Month — Philadelphia Union and USMNT midfielder Cavan Sullivan became the youngest player in MLS history to be named Player of the Month on Wednesday when he was awarded the honors for September. (ESPN, 2026-09-30)
- United States legend Tim Ream retires from national team — United States legend and Charlotte FC defender Tim Ream has officially retired from the national team. (ESPN, 2026-09-30)
- Five stats: Why USMNT should be excited about Cavan Sullivan — Is the hype around Cavan Sullivan's USMNT future too much? No, it's actually not enough -- and here are five reasons why. (ESPN, 2026-09-29)
- MLS Power Rankings: No Cavan? No problem for surging Philadelphia — Philadelphia lost three star youngsters to international duty, yet the Union continued their march toward the top of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-28)
- Sullivan, 16, starts for USMNT; youngest to earn cap since Adu in '06 — Sixteen-year-old Cavan Sullivan became the youngest player to start a game for the United States since Freddy Adu in 2006 when he was picked in Mauricio Pochettino's XI on Saturday for a friendly against Peru. (ESPN, 2026-09-27)