Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis CITY SC prediction: St. Louis CITY SC to win 1-2 as model gives 51.8% chance
MLS sees Minnesota United FC face St. Louis CITY SC at Allianz Field. The model makes St. Louis CITY SC the favourite, assigning a slight 51.8% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Minnesota United FC 23.5%, draw 24.7%, St. Louis CITY SC 51.8%.
Minnesota United FC have generated 1.66 goals per game (1.02x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.96 conceded per game. St. Louis CITY SC average 2.29 scored (1.40x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.38 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.6 for Minnesota United FC and 2.5 for St. Louis CITY SC.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 76.7%), and both teams are likely to score (73.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-2, 1-1, 1-3 the leading candidates.
Verdict: St. Louis CITY SC to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 51.8% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- St. Louis unbeaten run up to 20 games, tying Red Bulls' MLS record — Carlo Holse's hat trick helped St. Louis City SC beat the LA Galaxy 6-2 on Sunday night to extend their unbeaten streak across all competitions to 20 games. (ESPN, 2026-10-12)
- MLS Power Rankings: Miami back to winning ways, as Nashville chase history — Inter Miami end their winless drought, while Nashville still lead the way in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-12)
- St. Louis up to 2nd place with unbeaten run now at 17 games — Simon Becher and Tomas Ostrak each scored late in the second half as St. Louis City SC beat the New York Red Bulls 3-0 on Wednesday night. (ESPN, 2026-10-01)
- MLS Power Rankings: No Cavan? No problem for surging Philadelphia — Philadelphia lost three star youngsters to international duty, yet the Union continued their march toward the top of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-28)
- MLS Power Rankings: Union skyrocket as unbeaten streak reaches 11 games — Can anyone stop the Philadelphia Union? Their latest win powered them up the charts in this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-21)
- MLS Power Rankings: Chicago's slide continues as Nashville cements top spot — The Chicago Fire haven't tasted victory in more than three weeks, precipitating a slide down this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-14)