Red Bull New York vs Toronto FC prediction: Red Bull New York to win 2-1 as model gives 40.3% chance
MLS sees Red Bull New York face Toronto FC at Sports Illustrated Stadium. The model makes Red Bull New York the favourite, assigning a narrow 40.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Red Bull New York 40.3%, draw 26.6%, Toronto FC 33.1%.
Red Bull New York have generated 1.26 goals per game (0.77x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.66 conceded per game. Toronto FC average 1.42 scored (0.87x average) and are a steady defence at 1.78 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for Red Bull New York and 1.3 for Toronto FC.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (58.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Red Bull New York to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 40.3% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
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- Red Bulls teen Hall undecided on USMNT future despite 1st call-up — New York Red Bulls teenage forward Julian Hall said the decision on his international allegiance was still "not solidified," despite earning a first call-up to the U.S. men's national team on Thursday. (ESPN, 2026-09-17)
- MLS Power Rankings: Chicago's slide continues as Nashville cements top spot — The Chicago Fire haven't tasted victory in more than three weeks, precipitating a slide down this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-14)