New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire FC prediction: Chicago Fire FC to win 1-2 as model gives 38.2% chance
MLS sees New England Revolution face Chicago Fire FC at Gillette Stadium. The model makes Chicago Fire FC the favourite, assigning a narrow 38.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is New England Revolution 35.6%, draw 26.2%, Chicago Fire FC 38.2%.
New England Revolution have generated 1.56 goals per game (0.95x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.49 conceded per game. Chicago Fire FC average 1.81 scored (1.11x average) and are a steady defence at 1.54 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.6 for New England Revolution and 1.5 for Chicago Fire FC.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 60.7%), and both teams are likely to score (63.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Chicago Fire FC to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 38.2% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
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- MLS Power Rankings: Union skyrocket as unbeaten streak reaches 11 games — Can anyone stop the Philadelphia Union? Their latest win powered them up the charts in this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-21)
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- Miami rallies for draw after Lewandowski goal in front of record Fire crowd — Inter Miami and Lionel Messi rallied from a goal down at Soldier Field in Chicago for a 1-1 draw against Robert Lewandowski and the Fire in front of 63,094 fans, besting the club's home attendance record set last season in the same matchup. (ESPN, 2026-09-10)
- MLS Power Rankings: Griezmann catapults Orlando into the playoff picture — With eight goal contributions in eight games since joining the Lions, Antoine Griezmann has turned around Orlando's season. That and more in ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-07)