Seattle Sounders FC vs CF Montréal prediction: Seattle Sounders FC to win 2-0 as model gives 58.9% chance
MLS sees Seattle Sounders FC face CF Montréal at Lumen Field. The model makes Seattle Sounders FC the favourite, assigning a slight 58.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Seattle Sounders FC 58.9%, draw 24%, CF Montréal 17.1%.
Seattle Sounders FC have generated 1.51 goals per game (0.92x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.34 conceded per game. CF Montréal average 1.16 scored (0.71x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.91 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2 for Seattle Sounders FC and 0.9 for CF Montréal.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (50.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 2-0, 1-1, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Seattle Sounders FC to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 58.9% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
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