San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC prediction: Nashville SC to win 1-2 as model gives 54.4% chance
MLS sees San Jose Earthquakes face Nashville SC at PayPal Park. The model makes Nashville SC the favourite, assigning a slight 54.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is San Jose Earthquakes 21.4%, draw 24.2%, Nashville SC 54.4%.
San Jose Earthquakes have generated 1.62 goals per game (0.99x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.63 conceded per game. Nashville SC average 2.07 scored (1.27x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.91 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1 for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.9 for Nashville SC.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (54.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Nashville SC to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 54.4% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- MLS Power Rankings: Miami back to winning ways, as Nashville chase history — Inter Miami end their winless drought, while Nashville still lead the way in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-12)
- MLS Power Rankings: No Cavan? No problem for surging Philadelphia — Philadelphia lost three star youngsters to international duty, yet the Union continued their march toward the top of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-28)
- MLS Power Rankings: Union skyrocket as unbeaten streak reaches 11 games — Can anyone stop the Philadelphia Union? Their latest win powered them up the charts in this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-21)
- MLS Power Rankings: Chicago's slide continues as Nashville cements top spot — The Chicago Fire haven't tasted victory in more than three weeks, precipitating a slide down this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-14)
- Messi scores, but Nashville strikes late to deny Miami win — Lionel Messi scored a second-half goal, but Nashville SC struck back in stoppage time to earn a 2-2 draw at Inter Miami and maintain its nine-point lead at the top of the Eastern Conference. (ESPN, 2026-09-13)
- MLS Power Rankings: Griezmann catapults Orlando into the playoff picture — With eight goal contributions in eight games since joining the Lions, Antoine Griezmann has turned around Orlando's season. That and more in ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-07)