FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew prediction: FC Cincinnati to win 2-1 as model gives 46.9% chance
MLS sees FC Cincinnati face Columbus Crew at TQL Stadium. The model makes FC Cincinnati the favourite, assigning a slight 46.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is FC Cincinnati 46.9%, draw 26.1%, Columbus Crew 27%.
FC Cincinnati have generated 1.98 goals per game (1.21x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.32 conceded per game. Columbus Crew average 1.61 scored (0.99x average) and are a steady defence at 1.62 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.2 for FC Cincinnati and 2.1 for Columbus Crew.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 79.7%), and both teams are likely to score (78.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 2-2, 1-1, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: FC Cincinnati to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 46.9% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- MLS Power Rankings: Miami back to winning ways, as Nashville chase history — Inter Miami end their winless drought, while Nashville still lead the way in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-12)
- MLS Power Rankings: No Cavan? No problem for surging Philadelphia — Philadelphia lost three star youngsters to international duty, yet the Union continued their march toward the top of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-28)
- Columbus stuns Miami late after Messi's free-kick golazo — Jamal Thiaré scored in the eighth minute of second-half stoppage time to give the Columbus Crew a stunning 2-1 win over MLS Cup holders Inter Miami on Sunday. (ESPN, 2026-09-28)
- Columbus Crew 2 fires Higuain after fallout from ref abuse — The Columbus Crew announced that Crew 2 manager Federico Higuain has been fired for cause, effective immediately, in the wake of his suspension by MLS NEXT Pro following an incident of misconduct towards a female referee. (ESPN, 2026-09-22)
- Sources: Higuain at center of refs' union beef with MLS NEXT Pro — The union that represents MLS and USL referees launched a scathing critique of MLS NEXT Pro over its handling of an incident in which a coach committed what it described as "two deliberate acts of physical abuse and sexism towards a female official." (ESPN, 2026-09-22)
- MLS Power Rankings: Union skyrocket as unbeaten streak reaches 11 games — Can anyone stop the Philadelphia Union? Their latest win powered them up the charts in this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-21)