Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC prediction: Columbus Crew to win 2-1 as model gives 69.7% chance
MLS sees Columbus Crew face Toronto FC at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field. The model makes Columbus Crew the favourite, assigning a clear 69.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Columbus Crew 69.7%, draw 18.3%, Toronto FC 12%.
Columbus Crew have generated 1.63 goals per game (1.00x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.53 conceded per game. Toronto FC average 1.54 scored (0.95x average) and are a steady defence at 1.75 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2 for Columbus Crew and 1.3 for Toronto FC.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 63.4%), and both teams are likely to score (63.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Columbus Crew to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 69.7% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- St. Louis GK Bürki stretchered off after collision in Open Cup final — St. Louis goalkeeper Roman Bürki was taken to the hospital after taking a knock to the head during the U.S. Open Cup final against the Columbus Crew. (ESPN, 2026-10-22)
- St. Louis City beats Columbus in Open Cup final for club's first trophy — St. Louis City won the first trophy in the club's history on Wednesday after defeating Columbus Crew on penalties to lift the U.S. Open Cup. (ESPN, 2026-10-22)
- MLS Power Rankings: Messi's Inter Miami moving up, Nashville still No.1 — Nashville are very much still the team to beat, but Inter Miami, St. Louis City SC and Philly are hot on their heels in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-19)
- MLS Power Rankings: Miami back to winning ways, as Nashville chase history — Inter Miami end their winless drought, while Nashville still lead the way in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-12)
- MLS Power Rankings: No Cavan? No problem for surging Philadelphia — Philadelphia lost three star youngsters to international duty, yet the Union continued their march toward the top of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-28)
- Columbus stuns Miami late after Messi's free-kick golazo — Jamal Thiaré scored in the eighth minute of second-half stoppage time to give the Columbus Crew a stunning 2-1 win over MLS Cup holders Inter Miami on Sunday. (ESPN, 2026-09-28)