Red Bull New York vs Inter Miami CF prediction: Inter Miami CF to win 1-2 as model gives 58.4% chance
MLS sees Red Bull New York face Inter Miami CF at Sports Illustrated Stadium. The model makes Inter Miami CF the favourite, assigning a slight 58.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Red Bull New York 17.8%, draw 23.8%, Inter Miami CF 58.4%.
Red Bull New York have generated 1.18 goals per game (0.72x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.70 conceded per game. Inter Miami CF average 2.48 scored (1.53x average) and are a steady defence at 1.56 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Red Bull New York and 2.3 for Inter Miami CF.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 69.7%), and both teams are likely to score (65.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-2, 1-1, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Inter Miami CF to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 58.4% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- MLS Power Rankings: Messi's Inter Miami moving up, Nashville still No.1 — Nashville are very much still the team to beat, but Inter Miami, St. Louis City SC and Philly are hot on their heels in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-19)
- Lionel Messi scores twice, takes season tally to 25 in Miami win at Atlanta — Lionel Messi scored two scintillating second-half solo goals to take his MLS-leading tally to 25 as Inter Miami brushed aside hosts Atlanta United 3-1 on Saturday. (ESPN, 2026-10-18)
- Miami coach unbothered by Messi getting award in Spain 2 days before MLS game — Inter Miami coach Cristian "Kily" González confirmed Lionel Messi will travel to Spain next week to receive a prestigious award before rejoining the club for an MLS game two days later. (ESPN, 2026-10-16)
- Inter Miami, Messi clinch playoff spot with win over NYCFC — Inter Miami CF clinched a spot in the 2026 MLS playoffs after beating New York City FC at Nu Stadium on Wednesday night. (ESPN, 2026-10-15)
- Garber won't dish on exchange with Messi: 'Between me and Leo' — Don Garber has addressed his September confrontation with Lionel Messi, and the MLS commissioner said he admired the exchange. (ESPN, 2026-10-13)
- MLS Power Rankings: Miami back to winning ways, as Nashville chase history — Inter Miami end their winless drought, while Nashville still lead the way in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-12)