Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution prediction: Philadelphia Union to win 2-1 as model gives 68.7% chance
MLS sees Philadelphia Union face New England Revolution at Subaru Park. The model makes Philadelphia Union the favourite, assigning a clear 68.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Philadelphia Union 68.7%, draw 19.6%, New England Revolution 11.7%.
Philadelphia Union have generated 2.36 goals per game (1.45x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.42 conceded per game. New England Revolution average 1.60 scored (0.99x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.44 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.3 for Philadelphia Union and 1.3 for New England Revolution.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 69.6%), and both teams are likely to score (65.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 2-1, 1-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Philadelphia Union to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 68.7% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- MLS Power Rankings: Messi's Inter Miami moving up, Nashville still No.1 — Nashville are very much still the team to beat, but Inter Miami, St. Louis City SC and Philly are hot on their heels in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-19)
- U.S. prodigy Cavan Sullivan sets MLS record, laments 'terrible' performance — U.S. teen prodigy Cavan Sullivan made more history on Wednesday, but the Philadelphia Union midfielder insisted he was less than happy with his performance. (ESPN, 2026-10-16)
- MLS Power Rankings: Miami back to winning ways, as Nashville chase history — Inter Miami end their winless drought, while Nashville still lead the way in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-12)
- Philadelphia Union, USMNT's Cavan Sullivan becomes youngest MLS Player of the Month — Philadelphia Union and USMNT midfielder Cavan Sullivan became the youngest player in MLS history to be named Player of the Month on Wednesday when he was awarded the honors for September. (ESPN, 2026-09-30)
- Five stats: Why USMNT should be excited about Cavan Sullivan — Is the hype around Cavan Sullivan's USMNT future too much? No, it's actually not enough -- and here are five reasons why. (ESPN, 2026-09-29)
- MLS Power Rankings: No Cavan? No problem for surging Philadelphia — Philadelphia lost three star youngsters to international duty, yet the Union continued their march toward the top of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-28)