FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction: FC Dallas to win 2-1 as model gives 61.7% chance
MLS sees FC Dallas face San Jose Earthquakes at Toyota Stadium. The model makes FC Dallas the favourite, assigning a clear 61.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is FC Dallas 61.7%, draw 21.7%, San Jose Earthquakes 16.6%.
FC Dallas have generated 1.74 goals per game (1.07x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.58 conceded per game. San Jose Earthquakes average 1.55 scored (0.95x average) and are a steady defence at 1.56 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.9 for FC Dallas and 1.4 for San Jose Earthquakes.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 62.4%), and both teams are likely to score (63.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: FC Dallas to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 61.7% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
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