Toronto FC vs D.C. United prediction: Toronto FC to win 2-1 as model gives 50% chance
MLS sees Toronto FC face D.C. United at BMO Field. The model makes Toronto FC the favourite, assigning a slight 50% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Toronto FC 50%, draw 27.1%, D.C. United 23%.
Toronto FC have generated 1.56 goals per game (0.96x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.87 conceded per game. D.C. United average 1.14 scored (0.70x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.92 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.1 for Toronto FC and 1.2 for D.C. United.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 62.8%), and both teams are likely to score (61.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Toronto FC to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 50% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- MLS Power Rankings: Messi's Inter Miami moving up, Nashville still No.1 — Nashville are very much still the team to beat, but Inter Miami, St. Louis City SC and Philly are hot on their heels in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-19)
- MLS Power Rankings: Miami back to winning ways, as Nashville chase history — Inter Miami end their winless drought, while Nashville still lead the way in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-12)
- Lionel Messi scores twice for Inter Miami in 1st game since Argentina farewell — Four days on from an emotional end to his international career with Argentina, Lionel Messi continued to shine for Inter Miami, scoring twice in a 4-0 home thumping of D.C. United. (ESPN, 2026-10-11)
- MLS Power Rankings: No Cavan? No problem for surging Philadelphia — Philadelphia lost three star youngsters to international duty, yet the Union continued their march toward the top of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-28)
- MLS Power Rankings: Union skyrocket as unbeaten streak reaches 11 games — Can anyone stop the Philadelphia Union? Their latest win powered them up the charts in this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-21)
- MLS Power Rankings: Chicago's slide continues as Nashville cements top spot — The Chicago Fire haven't tasted victory in more than three weeks, precipitating a slide down this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-14)