New England Revolution vs Red Bull New York prediction: New England Revolution to win 2-0 as model gives 47.6% chance
MLS sees New England Revolution face Red Bull New York at Gillette Stadium. The model makes New England Revolution the favourite, assigning a slight 47.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is New England Revolution 47.6%, draw 27.5%, Red Bull New York 24.9%.
New England Revolution have generated 1.63 goals per game (1.00x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.41 conceded per game. Red Bull New York average 1.22 scored (0.75x average) and are a steady defence at 1.61 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.8 for New England Revolution and 1 for Red Bull New York.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (52.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 1-1, 2-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: New England Revolution to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 47.6% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Lionel Messi comes off bench as Casemiro own goal sees Red Bulls beat Miami — Lionel Messi came off the bench early in the second half but couldn't prevent Inter Miami's three-game win streak coming to an end with a 2-0 loss at Red Bull New York on Saturday. (ESPN, 2026-10-25)
- MLS Power Rankings: Messi's Inter Miami moving up, Nashville still No.1 — Nashville are very much still the team to beat, but Inter Miami, St. Louis City SC and Philly are hot on their heels in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-19)
- MLS Power Rankings: Miami back to winning ways, as Nashville chase history — Inter Miami end their winless drought, while Nashville still lead the way in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-12)
- St. Louis up to 2nd place with unbeaten run now at 17 games — Simon Becher and Tomas Ostrak each scored late in the second half as St. Louis City SC beat the New York Red Bulls 3-0 on Wednesday night. (ESPN, 2026-10-01)
- MLS Power Rankings: No Cavan? No problem for surging Philadelphia — Philadelphia lost three star youngsters to international duty, yet the Union continued their march toward the top of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-28)
- MLS Power Rankings: Union skyrocket as unbeaten streak reaches 11 games — Can anyone stop the Philadelphia Union? Their latest win powered them up the charts in this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-21)