Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union prediction: Nashville SC to win 2-1 as model gives 52.2% chance
MLS sees Nashville SC face Philadelphia Union at GEODIS Park. The model makes Nashville SC the favourite, assigning a slight 52.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Nashville SC 52.2%, draw 26.4%, Philadelphia Union 21.4%.
Nashville SC have generated 2.11 goals per game (1.30x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.82 conceded per game. Philadelphia Union average 2.28 scored (1.41x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.45 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.1 for Nashville SC and 1 for Philadelphia Union.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 60.7%), and both teams are likely to score (57.7%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Nashville SC to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 52.2% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Nashville SC wins 1st MLS Supporters' Shield title, eyes points record — Nashville SC clinched the 2026 MLS Supporters' Shield title after a 2-0 victory at CF Montréal on Saturday, winning the trophy for the first time in club history. (ESPN, 2026-10-24)
- MLS Power Rankings: Messi's Inter Miami moving up, Nashville still No.1 — Nashville are very much still the team to beat, but Inter Miami, St. Louis City SC and Philly are hot on their heels in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-19)
- U.S. prodigy Cavan Sullivan sets MLS record, laments 'terrible' performance — U.S. teen prodigy Cavan Sullivan made more history on Wednesday, but the Philadelphia Union midfielder insisted he was less than happy with his performance. (ESPN, 2026-10-16)
- MLS Power Rankings: Miami back to winning ways, as Nashville chase history — Inter Miami end their winless drought, while Nashville still lead the way in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-12)
- Philadelphia Union, USMNT's Cavan Sullivan becomes youngest MLS Player of the Month — Philadelphia Union and USMNT midfielder Cavan Sullivan became the youngest player in MLS history to be named Player of the Month on Wednesday when he was awarded the honors for September. (ESPN, 2026-09-30)
- Five stats: Why USMNT should be excited about Cavan Sullivan — Is the hype around Cavan Sullivan's USMNT future too much? No, it's actually not enough -- and here are five reasons why. (ESPN, 2026-09-29)