San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids prediction: San Jose Earthquakes to win 1-0 as model gives 47% chance
MLS sees San Jose Earthquakes face Colorado Rapids at PayPal Park. The model makes San Jose Earthquakes the favourite, assigning a slight 47% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is San Jose Earthquakes 47%, draw 26.4%, Colorado Rapids 26.5%.
San Jose Earthquakes have generated 1.46 goals per game (0.90x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.64 conceded per game. Colorado Rapids average 1.24 scored (0.76x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.35 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.1 for Colorado Rapids.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (51.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: San Jose Earthquakes to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 47% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
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