FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union prediction: Philadelphia Union to win 1-2 as model gives 38.9% chance
MLS sees FC Cincinnati face Philadelphia Union at TQL Stadium. The model makes Philadelphia Union the favourite, assigning a narrow 38.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is FC Cincinnati 35.5%, draw 25.6%, Philadelphia Union 38.9%.
FC Cincinnati have generated 1.88 goals per game (1.16x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.10 conceded per game. Philadelphia Union average 2.16 scored (1.33x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.37 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.8 for FC Cincinnati and 2.5 for Philadelphia Union.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 80.1%), and both teams are likely to score (77.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-2, 1-1, 2-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Philadelphia Union to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 38.9% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- MLS sprint season to kick off on Feb. 19 in Miami — The 2027 MLS sprint season will kick off with a standalone match between Inter Miami and FC Cincinnati on Feb. 19 at Nu Stadium in Miami, Florida. (ESPN, 2026-10-29)
- MLS Power Rankings: Revs jump eight places as playoffs loom — We're getting down to the pointy end of the season, and the New England Revolution have jumped right up ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-26)
- MLS Power Rankings: Messi's Inter Miami moving up, Nashville still No.1 — Nashville are very much still the team to beat, but Inter Miami, St. Louis City SC and Philly are hot on their heels in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-19)
- U.S. prodigy Cavan Sullivan sets MLS record, laments 'terrible' performance — U.S. teen prodigy Cavan Sullivan made more history on Wednesday, but the Philadelphia Union midfielder insisted he was less than happy with his performance. (ESPN, 2026-10-16)
- MLS Power Rankings: Miami back to winning ways, as Nashville chase history — Inter Miami end their winless drought, while Nashville still lead the way in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-12)
- Philadelphia Union, USMNT's Cavan Sullivan becomes youngest MLS Player of the Month — Philadelphia Union and USMNT midfielder Cavan Sullivan became the youngest player in MLS history to be named Player of the Month on Wednesday when he was awarded the honors for September. (ESPN, 2026-09-30)