Nashville SC vs Red Bull New York prediction: Nashville SC to win 2-0 as model gives 54.8% chance
MLS sees Nashville SC face Red Bull New York at GEODIS Park. The model makes Nashville SC the favourite, assigning a slight 54.8% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Nashville SC 54.8%, draw 27.7%, Red Bull New York 17.5%.
Nashville SC have generated 2.00 goals per game (1.23x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.77 conceded per game. Red Bull New York average 1.27 scored (0.78x average) and are a steady defence at 1.68 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.3 for Nashville SC and 0.5 for Red Bull New York.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 38.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 2-0, 1-0, 3-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Nashville SC to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 54.8% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- MLS Power Rankings: Revs jump eight places as playoffs loom — We're getting down to the pointy end of the season, and the New England Revolution have jumped right up ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-26)
- Lionel Messi comes off bench as Casemiro own goal sees Red Bulls beat Miami — Lionel Messi came off the bench early in the second half but couldn't prevent Inter Miami's three-game win streak coming to an end with a 2-0 loss at Red Bull New York on Saturday. (ESPN, 2026-10-25)
- Nashville SC wins 1st MLS Supporters' Shield title, eyes points record — Nashville SC clinched the 2026 MLS Supporters' Shield title after a 2-0 victory at CF Montréal on Saturday, winning the trophy for the first time in club history. (ESPN, 2026-10-24)
- MLS Power Rankings: Messi's Inter Miami moving up, Nashville still No.1 — Nashville are very much still the team to beat, but Inter Miami, St. Louis City SC and Philly are hot on their heels in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-19)
- MLS Power Rankings: Miami back to winning ways, as Nashville chase history — Inter Miami end their winless drought, while Nashville still lead the way in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-12)
- St. Louis up to 2nd place with unbeaten run now at 17 games — Simon Becher and Tomas Ostrak each scored late in the second half as St. Louis City SC beat the New York Red Bulls 3-0 on Wednesday night. (ESPN, 2026-10-01)