Columbus Crew vs D.C. United prediction: Columbus Crew to win 2-0 as model gives 67.6% chance
MLS sees Columbus Crew face D.C. United at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field. The model makes Columbus Crew the favourite, assigning a clear 67.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Columbus Crew 67.6%, draw 20.6%, D.C. United 11.8%.
Columbus Crew have generated 1.78 goals per game (1.09x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.47 conceded per game. D.C. United average 1.13 scored (0.69x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.92 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.4 for Columbus Crew and 0.9 for D.C. United.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 63.5%), and both teams are likely to score (55.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 2-0, 2-1, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Columbus Crew to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 67.6% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- MLS Power Rankings: Revs jump eight places as playoffs loom — We're getting down to the pointy end of the season, and the New England Revolution have jumped right up ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-26)
- St. Louis GK Bürki stretchered off after collision in Open Cup final — St. Louis goalkeeper Roman Bürki was taken to the hospital after taking a knock to the head during the U.S. Open Cup final against the Columbus Crew. (ESPN, 2026-10-22)
- St. Louis City beats Columbus in Open Cup final for club's first trophy — St. Louis City won the first trophy in the club's history on Wednesday after defeating Columbus Crew on penalties to lift the U.S. Open Cup. (ESPN, 2026-10-22)
- MLS Power Rankings: Messi's Inter Miami moving up, Nashville still No.1 — Nashville are very much still the team to beat, but Inter Miami, St. Louis City SC and Philly are hot on their heels in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-19)
- MLS Power Rankings: Miami back to winning ways, as Nashville chase history — Inter Miami end their winless drought, while Nashville still lead the way in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-12)
- Lionel Messi scores twice for Inter Miami in 1st game since Argentina farewell — Four days on from an emotional end to his international career with Argentina, Lionel Messi continued to shine for Inter Miami, scoring twice in a 4-0 home thumping of D.C. United. (ESPN, 2026-10-11)