Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas prediction: FC Dallas to win 1-2 as model gives 54.5% chance
MLS sees Sporting Kansas City face FC Dallas at Sporting Park. The model makes FC Dallas the favourite, assigning a slight 54.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Sporting Kansas City 21.5%, draw 24%, FC Dallas 54.5%.
Sporting Kansas City have generated 1.28 goals per game (0.79x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.47 conceded per game. FC Dallas average 1.71 scored (1.05x average) and are a steady defence at 1.52 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Sporting Kansas City and 2.3 for FC Dallas.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 71.1%), and both teams are likely to score (67.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-2, 1-1, 1-3 the leading candidates.
Verdict: FC Dallas to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 54.5% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- MLS Power Rankings: Revs jump eight places as playoffs loom — We're getting down to the pointy end of the season, and the New England Revolution have jumped right up ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-26)
- MLS Power Rankings: Messi's Inter Miami moving up, Nashville still No.1 — Nashville are very much still the team to beat, but Inter Miami, St. Louis City SC and Philly are hot on their heels in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-19)
- MLS Power Rankings: Miami back to winning ways, as Nashville chase history — Inter Miami end their winless drought, while Nashville still lead the way in our latest edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-12)
- How Jason Sudeikis and 'Ted Lasso' became champions for women's soccer — The cast of the hit comedy as well as NWSL veterans reflect on bringing authentic stories of women's soccer to a new stage. (ESPN, 2026-10-07)
- MLS Power Rankings: No Cavan? No problem for surging Philadelphia — Philadelphia lost three star youngsters to international duty, yet the Union continued their march toward the top of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-28)
- MLS Power Rankings: Union skyrocket as unbeaten streak reaches 11 games — Can anyone stop the Philadelphia Union? Their latest win powered them up the charts in this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-21)